A Glimpse at the 2026 Midterms

In 268 days, the 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held, marking the first truly nationwide referendum on the performance of the Trump administration. 35 out of 100 U.S. Senate seats, all 435 U.S. House seats, and thirty-six governorships, along with thousands of state and local elections, will all be up for election this November. 

Historically, the incumbent President’s party performs poorly in midterm elections. Since the Second World War, the President’s party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House and an average of 4 seats in the Senate. With the Republicans holding both houses of Congress and the Trump administration’s approval ratings in free fall, the Republican Party ought to prepare for what will likely be a terrible election year for them.

Today is a mere preview of the elections in November, what races are expected to be competitive, and what both parties need to win power.

The Senate

In the Senate, 33 seats (designated as Class 2) are up for election, in addition to 2 special elections being held in Florida and Ohio. Democrats are defending 13 seats, while Republicans are defending 22 seats. With Republicans holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to flip 4 to take the majority. As of writing, 9 incumbent senators – 4 Democrats and 5 Republicans, including former Republican leader Mitch McConnell (KY) and current Democratic whip Dick Durbin (IL) – are retiring.

Just like 2024, this map is considered favorable to Republicans. The majority of Republican-held seats up for election are in states that voted for President Trump by double digits in 2024. Senator Susan Collins’s (Collins has not yet formally indicated whether or not she will run for re-election) seat in Maine is the only seat being defended by a Republican in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024. In North Carolina, Republican senator Thom Tillis is retiring in a state that Trump only won by a single-digit margin.

On the other hand, Democrats are defending two seats in states Trump won in 2024: Michigan, where incumbent Gary Peters is retiring, and Georgia, where incumbent Jon Ossoff is running for re-election. Five Democratic incumbent senators represent states that Kamala Harris lost only by a single-digit margin in 2024: Tina Smith of Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico, and Mark Warner of Virginia. Smith and Shaheen are retiring.

If Democrats want to take back the Senate, they would have to make sure that they defend all their seats (especially in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire) and flip 4 seats. Maine and North Carolina would hypothetically be the easiest to pick off, with incumbent Susan Collins’s approval ratings underwater in Maine and Democrats running a popular former governor in North Carolina. Beyond that, the path to 51 gets more difficult. Democrats will have to try picking off seats in states Trump won by double-digit margins.

These so-called “reach” opportunities for Democrats are in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, where the environment is. In Alaska, Democratic former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who lost re-election to Congress in 2024 but is considered the strongest Democratic contender in the state, is taking on Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. In Ohio, former U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown is itching for a return to the Senate after his bid for a fourth term was rejected in 2024. He will face Republican incumbent Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill Vice President J.D. Vance’s seat last year. In Texas, where the Hispanic community’s approval of the Trump administration has soured greatly, Democrats are having a competitive primary between Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state legislator James Talarico. The winner of that primary will take on the winner of the Republican primary, which is currently being contested by incumbent Senator John Cornyn, state attorney general Ken Paxton, and Congressman Wesley Hunt. There are also other “reach” opportunities for Democrats in Florida, Iowa, and Nebraska, but it is still too early to tell whether these states will be competitive or not. 

Right now, the Republican Party should be able to keep the Senate, but most probably with a trimmed majority. However, considering the unpopularity of the GOP, I would not be surprised if more states become competitive as we get closer to November, potentially putting the Senate closer to a tossup rather than the Republican advantage it currently has.

The House

In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats will be up for grabs. Currently, Republicans hold a 218-214 majority, with 3 vacant seats. Special elections will be held in those 3 vacant seats throughout the year. As of now, Democrats need just 4 seats to win the House majority. As of writing, 51 representatives – 21 Democrats and 30 Republicans, including former Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA) and former Democratic leader Steny Hoyer (MD) – are retiring.

The battle for the House made plenty of headlines last year. President Trump and the Republican Party made efforts to redraw congressional district maps in states the party controlled in order to favor the GOP. They have certainly succeeded in this front in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. However, their momentum has been slowed significantly. California voted to redraw its congressional map and replace it with a Democratic gerrymander last November, while Republican efforts to redraw maps in Indiana and Kansas collapsed. Utah’s supreme court struck down the state’s congressional map, replacing it with one that could elect a Democrat (Utah’s congressional delegation has been entirely Republican since 2021). 

Currently, there are still multiple efforts occurring in the redistricting battle. Virginia, with its new Democratic trifecta in power, is making strides towards redrawing the state’s congressional map, while a judge in New York struck down the Republican-held 11th congressional district as having violated the Voting Rights Act. Redistricting litigation continues to occur in Missouri and Wisconsin, while Florida and Maryland have both hesitated to redraw their states’ congressional maps. 

As of February 2026, the current House map is quite competitive, with the Democrats taking a slight edge over the Republicans. Over three-fourths of House seats, or around 339 seats, are considered not to be competitive at all, due mostly to redistricting and political polarization. 18 seats are considered pure tossups, with an additional 18 seats featuring small advantages for either party. There are around 60 seats, three-fourths of which are held by the Republican Party, that have the potential to become competitive. As we get closer to November, we will be able to have a clearer picture of where things stand. But the bottom line is this: the Democrats should have an easier time retaking the House of Representatives despite Republican efforts to redistrict and try to gain an advantage. 

Governorships

36 of the 50 states are holding gubernatorial elections this year. Both Democrats and Republicans are defending 18 governorships each. 15 incumbents are term-limited, while 3 other incumbents are foregoing re-election. 

Republicans are defending 2 governorships in states Kamala Harris won, namely Vermont and New Hampshire. Both of their incumbent governors have not announced whether or not they will run for re-election. On the other hand, Democrats are defending 5 governorships in states President Trump won, namely Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The incumbent governors of Arizona and Pennsylvania are running for re-election, while the other 3 states are open.

There is quite a bit of ground that both parties can try to expand into. The Democrats can try defeating Nevada’s incumbent governor, flipping the open Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio governorships, and winning one or both in New Hampshire and Vermont if their Republican governors forego re-election. On the other hand, Republicans are favored to flip the Kansas governorship, and they have the opportunity to play offense in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Governorships historically are much less polarized than national elections, so the gubernatorial elections this year have the potential to look interesting.

Primaries

What will be important to watch are the candidates that the Democrats and the Republicans will nominate in their respective primaries. Candidate quality still matters somewhat, and the candidate’s profile will either make the race more or less competitive for either party. The candidates that the parties nominate will be on the November ballot.

You can check below when your state is holding a primary, and whether independents can vote in them:

Emil Ordoñez

Emil Ordonez, a political science major at Fordham University, is the founder and editor-in-chief of Polinsights. He has been deeply passionate about politics and history since learning every U.S. President at the age of five. He was compelled to start this blog after meeting many people who were misinformed or had become apathetic about how society worked. He hopes to provide factual knowledge and insights that will encourage people, especially the young, to get more engaged in their respective communities. In his free time, he edits for Wikipedia and makes maps for elections. He aspires to work in Congress or even the White House in the future.