On March 3, 2026, the 2026 primary season will kick off when voters head to the polls in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. There are a number of interesting races to watch, most of which are in Texas and a couple in North Carolina:
Texas
U.S. Senate
This year, there are competitive primaries for both the Democratic and Republican Parties for the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate seat.
On the Republican side, incumbent Senator John Cornyn, in office since 2002, is seeking re-election to a fifth term. He is fighting for his political life in a three-way against the controversial state attorney general, Ken Paxton, and two-term Congressman Wesley Hunt. Despite having served in the U.S. Senate for so long, much of the Republican electorate seems poised to ditch Cornyn due to concerns that he is insufficiently pro-Trump. The race has gotten quite nasty in recent weeks, with pro-Cornyn groups spending heavily and airing ads accusing Paxton of having extramarital affairs and enriching himself in public office. If none of these candidates get an outright majority in the first round, the top two vote-getters will advance to the runoff. I would expect Paxton and Cornyn to advance to the runoff in first and second place, respectively.
L-R: Senator John Cornyn, Congressman Wesley Hunt, and State Attorney General Ken Paxton. Source: The Texas Tribune
If Paxton gets nominated by the Republicans, his candidacy will create an opening for Democrats in the state. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas for 32 years, and it has been 38 years since they have won a U.S. Senate race. The Democratic primary is similarly competitive, featuring a bruising close primary between two-term Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state representative James Talarico. Turnout so far in the Democratic primary has been higher than in its Republican counterpart, and this could potentially mean that, for the first time since 2002, more Texans participate in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary.
State Representative James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett on the debate stage in January 2026. Source: The Texas Tribune
Crockett is more well-known nationwide, but she joined the race late. Talarico, who had an early start, has led her on fundraising and ad spending. This primary has been subject to discussions of “electability”, as Talarico’s supporters feel that he, as a white man who often quotes scripture, could make inroads in the traditionally ruby red state. Crockett, a Black woman who has been known nationally for her confrontative style of politics, argues that she can engage voters who are disengaged and typically do not vote; after all, Texas has one of the lowest turnout rates in the country.
Republicans would definitely prefer to face the more controversial Crockett, and Republican groups have spent money on ads promoting Crockett among Democrats. Still, it will be a close primary. Crockett is expected to win Black voters overwhelmingly, while Talarico will probably be preferred by white voters. It will be up to Latinos to decide who will be the Democratic nominee. As for my personal opinion, I believe that Talarico will narrowly win the primary over Crockett, if it does not proceed to a runoff election.
U.S. House
Further down the ballot in Texas’s 38 House districts, there are four primaries that may see congressional incumbents going down.
The most vulnerable incumbent is probably three-term Congressman Tony Gonzales (R) in Texas’s 23rd congressional district, which covers much of southwestern Texas bordering Mexico. He is facing gun influencer Brandon Herrera in a rematch from 2024. Gonzales, who only won his last primary by 1%, is facing allegations that he had an extramarital affair with a staffer who later committed suicide. Such news has caused backlash among some of Gonzales’s fellow Republicans in Washington, and there have been some calls to resign. Even President Trump, who endorsed Gonzales initially before the allegations came to light, did not repost his endorsement ahead of a campaign rally in Corpus Christi a few days ago.
In the 2nd congressional district, which covers part of southeastern Texas near the Houston metropolitan area, four-term Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R) faces a primary challenge from state representative Steve Toth, who has accused Crenshaw of not being conservative enough. Crenshaw has disagreed with Republicans on matters of foreign policy and is more willing to aid Ukraine than many of his colleagues. What is worse is that Crenshaw is the only Republican incumbent whom President Trump did not endorse for re-election. We will see if Toth can pull off a victory here.
In the newly-drawn 18th congressional district, which is based in Houston, Democratic incumbents Al Green and Christian Menefee are sparring in an incumbent vs. incumbent primary. The 18th district is safely Democratic, meaning that the winner of the Democratic primary will almost certainly head to Washington after the midterms. Republicans in the state legislature had combined two-thirds of Green’s current 9th district with part of the old 18th district that Menefree currently represents, placing both incumbents in the same majority-Black district. Green, who has served in Congress since 2005, is facing his first competitive primary in years and seems to be the underdog against Menefee, who was recently elected in a special election to represent the old 18th district and has outraised the longtime member of Congress.
Lastly, the solidly blue 33rd congressional district, based in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, features a race between one-term Democratic incumbent Julie Johnson, whose current 32nd district was split into multiple districts by the Republican state legislature, and former three-term Congressman Colin Allred, who represented the current 32nd district before Johnson and left it to an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2024. Allred was previously running for Senate again, but he dropped out in December and later endorsed Crockett. Now, he is seeking a return to Congress. It seems, though, that his bid to return may fall short, as Johnson has caught up to him on spending and fundraising numbers.
Other competitive primaries in Texas include the redrawn 34th congressional district (comprising the area of the Gulf Coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi), where former Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores, who lost to the 34th district’s Democratic incumbent, Vicente Gonzalez, in 2022 and 2024, is running for a third time to represent the district. However, she might lose to former federal prosecutor Eric Flores, who has President Trump’s endorsement. Another competitive race to watch is the newly-drawn 35th congressional district, based outside San Antonio, which leans Republican and has a competitive Republican primary.
North Carolina
U.S. House
The primaries for the Tar Heel State’s U.S. Senate seat are not very competitive at all, with former Governor Roy Cooper and former RNC chair Michael Whatley expected to win the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively. However, there are a couple of congressional primaries worth watching in the state.
In the solidly blue 4th congressional district, based around North Carolina’s Research Triangle, two-term Democratic incumbent Valerie Foushee is facing a progressive primary challenger in Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who has criticized the congresswoman’s support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), whose support has become a liability for Democratic incumbents in recent years. Allam, who is in his thirties, is also making a contrast in age between himself and the 69-year-old congresswoman. Both candidates have raised quite a lot of money and all signs point to a highly competitive primary.
In the 1st congressional district, based in eastern North Carolina, retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout is seeking a rematch against two-term Democratic incumbent Don Davis, whom she narrowly lost to by 2% in 2024. While she has a financial edge, she faces a number of opponents in the Republican primary, including a county sheriff and a state representative. It seems likely that this primary will head to a runoff, as it appears none of the Republicans have the support necessary to win the nomination outright.
Emil Ordonez, a political science major at Fordham University, is the founder and editor-in-chief of Polinsights. He has been deeply passionate about politics and history since learning every U.S. President at the age of five. He was compelled to start this blog after meeting many people who were misinformed or had become apathetic about how society worked. He hopes to provide factual knowledge and insights that will encourage people, especially the young, to get more engaged in their respective communities. In his free time, he edits for Wikipedia and makes maps for elections. He aspires to work in Congress or even the White House in the future.
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