2026 U.S. Midterm Election Forecast

Updated on May 8, 2026

Senate Election Forecast

Current Seat Count:

Republicans – 53
Democrats – 47 (includes 2 independents who caucus with them)

Seat Forecast:

Republicans – 49
Democrats – 49 (includes 2 independents who caucus with them)
Tossup – 2
51 seats needed to win control (50 with the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote)

House of Representatives Election Forecast

Seat Count Heading into November 2026:

Republicans – 217
Democrats – 212
Independents – 1
Vacant – 5

Seat Forecast:

Democrats – 217
Republicans – 196
Tossup – 9
TBD – 13
218 needed to win control

Gubernatorial Election Forecast

Current Governors:

Republicans – 27
Democrats – 23

Seat Forecast:

Democrats – 17
Republicans – 15
Tossup – 4

Note: Maps were made with yapms.com