Biden delivering an Oval Office address in the wake of former President Trump’s assassination attempt. Source: NYT
July 21, 2024. President Joe Biden announced that he would not run for re-election to a second term, following numerous calls from fellow Democrats to withdraw from the race. He subsequently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee. This event is the latest in the line of major historical political events that have continued to upend the 2024 United States presidential election.
The Republicans had coalesced around former President Donald Trump during four days of the Republican National Convention. Former rivals Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy had delivered speeches at the convention, projecting a united front of conservatism against the Biden administration. This happened all while the Democratic Party imploded, with the calls of dozens of lawmakers and high-profile party members for Biden to drop out mounting every single day. Now, the Trump attack plan on Biden is gone, and he has to adjust to attacking Vice President Kamala Harris – who, in all likelihood, will be the Democratic nominee. Trump had wanted Biden to stay in the race, as the latter had historically low approval ratings and would be easier to attack as the incumbent President.
Harris at Biden’s victory party in November 2020. Source: Getty Images
Biden is the first President since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 to forego running for a second term. The 81-year-old incumbent had been crippled by concerns about his age, particularly after a weak debate performance, and bad polling in just about every swing state. Support for the president had gone down among key constituencies – particularly Blacks and Hispanics. Behind the scenes, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, concerned that Biden’s poor performance would lead to Democrats losing control of Congress, started a closed-door pressure campaign for Biden to drop out. Even former President Obama had privately expressed concerns his former Vice President couldn’t win.
Now Biden is out. He served decades in the service of the United States, representing his home state of Delaware in the Senate faithfully from 1973 to 2009, serving as Vice President under President Obama from 2009 to 2017, and becoming the oldest President to ever get elected in his third attempt running for the presidency. More than fifty years of triumph, tragedy, and hardship in the arena of public service will come to an end. No matter one’s political differences, his long career has forever changed American history and politics and must be acknowledged for doing so.
With Biden endorsing Harris, she will likely obtain the Democratic nomination swiftly, although no challengers have been announced yet and the DNC has not yet announced whether an open primary will be held. Either way, an uncertain path lies ahead for the Democratic Party. If they expect any chance of winning against Trump, the ideal path for them is to stop the infighting and unite quickly around Harris.
Biden’s withdrawal changes the narrative of the race. All polls recording him against Trump are now rendered moot. Accordingly, Polinsights will adjust its ratings in the U.S. Election Forecast, as it is too early to see the effect of Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s probable nomination on the race. The Democrats now have the chance to rebound and fight against Trump (who is only a few years younger than Biden) with a younger, more energetic candidate in Kamala Harris, who would be the first female and first Asian President if elected. The 2024 United States presidential election has only gotten more interesting.
Emil Ordonez, a political science major at Fordham University, is the founder and editor-in-chief of Polinsights. He has been deeply passionate about politics and history since learning every U.S. President at the age of five. He was compelled to start this blog after meeting many people who were misinformed or had become apathetic about how society worked. He hopes to provide factual knowledge and insights that will encourage people, especially the young, to get more engaged in their respective communities. In his free time, he edits for Wikipedia and makes maps for elections. He aspires to work in Congress or even the White House in the future.
Leave a Reply