Leading up to 2020, Chinese economic and military supremacy seemed all but imminent, yet now the headlines have shifted and China seems to be crumbling. Why is this happening? Will China continue its growth and overtake the US? As someone who predicted the fall of China back in 2020 when everyone seemed to see them as the next global superpower, I hope to offer some clarity on the situation and why I am not fearful for the future of US supremacy.
Chinese President Xi, Then-US President Trump during the latter’s state visit to China in 2017. Source: PA Images
The Chinese Military
Often in conversations about the Chinese military, I heard a variation of two main ideas: the sheer size of it, and the growing Chinese and naval forces.
The former is absolutely a strong point for the Chinese, they have a standing army of over 2 million active-duty soldiers—nearly double that of the US armed forces. This is undeniably a strength as for the most part they are well-trained, equipped, and commanded, meaning that they would be well-suited for any ground war. Furthermore, this would put them in a situation where if the US or any other nation intended to invade and control China, they would likely fall into the slog of human wave tactics employed by China whose People’s Liberation Army (PLA) employs as its main military doctrine. Furthermore, in an invasion of Taiwan for example, the PLA’s ability to quickly send hundreds of thousands of soldiers could overwhelm any geographic advantage that Taiwan has.
However, this has been a longstanding fact, much more worrying for people is the recent advancements in aircraft carrier technology that China has made. At the forefront of US power projection is its vast fleet of aircraft carriers, 11 to be exact. China on the other hand has 2, tied with nations such as Great Britain. Yet, what is scaring most military analysts is that it is building four more, one of which is a supercarrier. This would put the US Navy, which albeit still would be bigger, in fear for its global dominance.
Yet, I for one am not scared. Put simply, Chinese military technology is at best a decade behind as its fifth-generation aircraft do not use fully functional engines meanwhile the US developed the F-22 Raptor (also fifth generation) in 2005. As for the aircraft carriers themselves, the PLA has been known to be overzealous in its estimates as the bureaucracy in China allows for corruption. In fact, an anonymous U.S. intelligence source told Bloomberg.com that “The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that U.S. officials now believe [that] Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case.” The simple fact is that although China’s PLA does have plentiful soldiers it lacks the technology and is far too corrupt to combat US military supremacy.
Image from Getty Images
The Chinese Economy
Nonetheless, debates about China don’t usually center around its military—any military action by them would be senseless in achieving greater domination of the world in comparison to leveraging economic might—instead its growing economy, one that might even overtake the US economy according to some sources. Even worse for the US, China seems to have shrugged off any issues it had in 2021 and 2022 with Covid reaching a surprising 5.2% GDP growth in 2023.
Yet, although China is certainly doing better than a decade ago, they simply cannot compare to the American economy. For starters, China has been caught lying about its macroeconomic figures multiple times, leading economists to speculate about the veracity of its economic strength. Furthermore, China seems to be struggling from near deflation which might sound good for American readers, but economically having below 2% inflation is less than favorable as it means consumer spending is down in the nation.
However, there are three main reasons why China will not do so well in the future: its losing grip on the global markets, the housing and equities crisis, and its demographic crisis.
When looking at recent trends in Chinese exports things begin to look grim for Beijing. For example, in March 2024, Chinese exports fell by 7.5%, a dramatic decline for a nation dependent on exports. Furthermore, the US has recently taken to arms the production of semiconductors with its recent CHIPS act passed in 2022. This means that China is not only losing its more general exports but also its dominance on goods such as semiconductors.
Starting in 2020, headlines were filled with the housing crisis occurring in China; buildings were benignly demolished and people were filled with uncertainty about what would happen there. The CCP has been ineffective at best in mitigating the widespread effects this could have on the economy, leading to a fall in their equities markets with the Shanghai Stock Exchange falling over 7% in the past year alone. This brews fears in the markets and leads to less foreign investment, creating a negative feedback loop that is leaving an ugly stain on the Chinese economy.
Finally, and the most existential problem China has, is with its demographics. The Chinese culture is one of caring for parents above all else, meaning that people are at home caring for their parents instead of building their own lives. This means that fewer people are having children, leading to a general aging of the population. Although this has not hurt the economy substantially thus far, it will continue to have worse effects on China while the USA which is aging far slower will not struggle the same way.
In the end, economics and politics are unpredictable. Models that predicted China would overtake the US were halted in their tracks in 2020 and perhaps forever yet new models could be too pessimistic for China. If anything can be taken from China’s recent economic decline and general military failures, it’s that China would be foolish to invade any nation so long as it is still easily overshadowed by the US. Perhaps China will have a dramatic rise again or perhaps their poor economic management will finally let the dog catch its tail, only time will tell. Nonetheless, as someone who did not believe in China’s possible supremacy back in early 2020, I do not believe they will have any better odds now to overtake the US.
Felix Puig Seppalainen is the senior political editor of Polinsights. He is a rising high school senior. Following the 2020 election, he cemented his love for politics and economics and have pursued those studies ever since. For fun, he trades in the stock market, learn history, and predict elections which led to his invitation to partake in Polinsights and take a part in this work of democratizing the access to information on politics.
Leave a Reply