Democrats Slightly Favored To Take House

A close fight is brewing in the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for grabs this Election Day. Since the vast majority of congressional districts are considered “Safe” for either party due to gerrymandering and political polarization, control of the House will lie in the hands of 39 congressional districts, scattered across the country. 

Republicans have held a very narrow majority in the House since they won control of the chamber in the 2022 midterms. The ensuing 118th Congress has been marked by numerous contentious elections for Speaker, multiple censures, the first expulsion of a member since the 1980s, and the first Speaker to be removed from office. The narrow Republican majority has been marred by infighting between the establishment and the more hardline conservative Freedom Caucus members, with Republican leadership sometimes having to rely on the Democrats to pass legislation. It is no wonder that amid this chaos, dozens of members of Congress are foregoing re-election this cycle, including five Republican committee chairs. 

The race for the House has always been tight, with Democrats only needing 6 seats to flip the chamber. Based on our analysis of all 435 congressional districts, with particular emphasis on the competitive 39 mentioned earlier, we are projecting a 51% chance that the Democrats flip the chamber, with a 49% chance of the chamber remaining in Republican hands. The projected seat count in our opinion is 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans, which would be a near reversal of the midterm election results two years ago. Here’s a super long seat breakdown ordered by region:

The Northeast

Several competitive races are to be watched in the Northeast, starting with the country’s easternmost district: Maine’s 2nd district. Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is fighting for a third term against Republican state legislator Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver. Golden’s position is notable as his district has been won by Trump twice by 10% in 2016 and 7% in 2020. Still, Golden has remained popular in his district owing to his reputation as one of the most moderate members of the Democratic caucus. Theriault could still pull off a win, though, as Golden has recently reneged on his opposition to an assault weapon ban (which could approve anathema to the district’s rural voters), and the fact he won his first state legislative race in a district Biden won in 2020. This race is rated as a Tilt Democratic hold.

Heading out west to New York, several House seats are in play there. On Long Island, Republican Congressman Anthony D’Esposito is fending off a rematch with Democrat Laura Gillen in New York’s 4th district, a district Biden won by nearly 15% in 2020. Not only is D’Esposito at a disadvantage due to the district’s partisan lean but he has also been tarnished by an extramarital affair in which he gave his lover a job in his congressional office. For these reasons, this race is a Likely Democratic flip.

In upstate New York, Republican congressman Mike Lawler is defending his seat against Democratic former congressman Mondaire Jones in the Biden+10 17th district. Lawler is favored, however, as he has secured the backing of the district’s Hasidic Jewish community (who more often than not vote as a bloc) and has benefitted from Jones’s flaws. Jones lost the nomination of the Working Families Party, a party whose voters typically vote Democratic, and has also been accused of carpetbagging as he just recently moved back from New York City to run in this district again. We are looking at a Lean Republican hold rating here.

Republicans are in trouble in two more Upstate New York seats: New York’s 19th and 22nd districts. In the 19th, Republican congressman Marc Molinaro has been down in recent polls against Democratic challenger Josh Riley and is also being hampered by the fact that he doesn’t even live in the district. In the 22nd, the New York state legislature has altered the district to make it more Democratic-leaning, which puts Republican congressman Brandon Williams in danger of losing his seat to Democratic state legislator John Mannion. These seats are rated as Lean Democratic flip and Likely Democratic flip respectively. 

Down in New Jersey’s 7th district, Republican congressman Tom Kean Jr. will probably cruise to re-election due to being the son of a beloved ex-governor and Democrats’ very late funding here. Kean has built up a huge financial advantage against Democratic challenger Sue Altman, who is running on a progressive platform. It wouldn’t be surprising, though, if Altman were to win – Biden won the district by nearly 4% in 2020. This race is rated as a Lean Republican hold.

In northeast Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbents Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright are favored in the 7th and 8th districts respectively. Both have been outrunning Kamala Harris on district-wide polling and have huge financial advantages over their Republican opponents. We anticipate though that Cartwright will have a tight race, as his Scranton-based district voted for Trump by nearly 3% in 2020, but he will ultimately win due to his long run of representing this district. Both these races are rated as Lean Democratic hold.

Finally, in Pennsylvania’s 10th district, which includes the state capital Harrisburg, Republican congressman Scott Perry is fighting for his political career against Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor. Perry has been criticized for his membership in the Freedom Caucus, a group of far-right Republican members of the House, and even polled behind Stelson in some district-wide polls. Stelson has also received endorsements from several prominent Republican figures. However, due to the district’s tendency to vote Republican in federal elections, we think that Perry will narrowly eke out a win. This race is a Tilt Republican hold.

The Midwest

We start our journey through the Midwest in the state of Ohio, where Democratic incumbents Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes are fighting to hold their seats in the Toledo-based 9th district and the Akron-based 13th district respectively. Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in the House, was redistricted into a Trump+3 district following the 2020 elections. She defied expectations in 2022 however and defeated a Republican challenger by 13% in 2022, leading us to rate her race as a Lean Democratic hold. In the 13th district, Sykes benefits from the district’s proximity to heavily Democratic Cleveland and her massive fundraising advantage. She also won her race in 2022 despite observers thinking the district would go Republican. Her race is also rated as Lean Democratic hold.

Go north to Michigan and you’ll find two very competitive districts in the central part of the state – the 7th and 8th districts. The Lansing-based 7th district, which is currently an open seat due to incumbent congresswoman Elissa Slotkin’s run for the Senate, is being fought for by state senators Tom Barrett, a Republican, and Curtis Hertel Jr., a Democrat. Barrett, in our opinion, will probably flip this seat due to the district’s Republican lean at the state level (even though it voted for Joe Biden in 2020) and his lead in every single district-wide poll conducted thus far. This race is a Lean Republican flip. On the other hand, Democratic candidate Kristen McDonald Rivet is fighting to hold the open seat in the 8th district, which includes Flint and the Tri-Cities metropolitan area. Due to the presence of the city of heavily Democratic Flint, McDonald Rivet will probably eke out a narrow win in this seat. We would not be surprised, though, if Republican candidate Paul Junge ends up winning in the end, as this is a very tight race. The 8th is rated as a Tilt Democratic hold. 

A less competitive race can be found in the northeastern suburbs of Detroit, where Republican congressman John James is trying to win a second term as the 10th district’s congressman. His fundraising abilities have ripped away at Democratic chances in this seat, and James is looking likely to win re-election. As a result, his race is a Lean Republican hold.

Further into the Midwest, we find Wisconsin’s 3rd district, based in the rural, western portion of the state. Republican congressman Derrick Van Orden has been quite a character, gaining notoriety for swearing at Senate pages taking pictures during their last day working at the Capitol, and also being present during the January 6th riots at the Capitol. We still think he wins though due to the district’s rightward tilt, although not as comfortably as in 2022. This race is a Tilt Republican hold.

In Iowa, a poll widely regarded as the “gold standard” in the industry showed likely voters favoring Democratic candidates in two of the state’s four congressional districts – Iowa’s 1st (+17%) and 3rd districts (+7%). This pollster is no joke – the Selzer poll got the 2016 and 2020 elections in the state correct and got many other recent elections correct as well. Of course, we’re not only relying on one poll – Democratic candidates Christina Bohannan and Lanon Baccam have also led their Republican opponents Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in some previous polls. Therefore, we are putting both these races as Tilt Democratic flip.

Finally, in Nebraska’s 2nd district, Republican congressman Don Bacon has been cruising to re-election for three consecutive elections despite the district’s leftward trend. However, his time might be up. Polls show Kamala Harris squarely ahead in the Omaha-based district, and as a result, his Democratic opponent Tony Vargas has also pulled ahead of Bacon. Bacon also did not help matters when he advocated for taking away the district’s electoral vote – Nebraska alongside Maine allocates electoral votes for their congressional districts. As a result, this race is Lean Democratic flip.

The South

Down South, there are plenty of races to watch. In Virginia, there are two competitive races of note. In the Virginia Beach-based 2nd district, Republican congresswoman Jen Kiggans is trying to fend off a challenge by Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal, who has cut into the congresswoman’s polling lead in recent weeks. It should not be surprising how competitive this seat is given Biden won the district by 2% in 2020 and the district’s trend towards the Democratic Party. However, Kiggans is popular enough in the district that we’ll forecast her race as Tilt Republican hold. Further into Virginia, Democrat Eugene Vindman is trying to hold a seat left open by Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger but has proven to be a weak candidate due to his general unfamiliarity within the district. Given the district’s leftward trend however, Vindman’s fundraising abilities, and the Republican candidate’s own scandal (taking a picture with a friend’s wife and kids and presenting them as his own family when he had none), we rate this district as Lean Democratic hold.

In North Carolina, Republicans in that state’s legislature drew a Republican-leaning map in order to help Republicans keep control of the House in 2024. As a result, three Democratic incumbents retired in the 6th, 13th, and 14th districts – now drawn to be more Republican-leaning and are guaranteed to flip in November. North Carolina’s 1st district in the east however features a much more competitive race with Democratic congressman Don Davis seeking to defend his seat in a Republican-trending district. Davis will probably win with the help of the district’s significant Black population. His Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout has additionally been unable to gain traction in polling. We categorize this race as a Lean Democratic hold.

Redistricting has also played a role in other Southern states. In Alabama and Louisiana, the Supreme Court’s decision against racial gerrymandering struck down the congressional maps in those states, compelling them to draw a second Black majority district in their new maps. As a result, Alabama’s 2nd district and Louisiana’s 6th district are both projected to flip to the Democrats. 

In Florida, the 13th district which contains the suburbs of St. Petersburg features a competitive race for Republican congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna, who is gunning for her second term. Luna has come under fire for falsifying parts of her biography and life story and has also been scrutinized for her membership in the far-right Freedom Caucus. As a result, she is facing a closer race than usual in her Republican-leaning district. It is due to this same Republican lean and Florida’s overall Republican trend that we expect Luna to win re-election. We are rating this race as Lean Republican hold.

Finally, in Texas’s 34th district, Democratic congressman Vicente Gonzalez is having a rematch with Republican former congresswoman Mayra Flores, whom he beat in 2022. The Rio Grande Valley has been trending Republican in recent elections and as a result, formerly safe Democratic districts like the 34th have been getting more competitive lately. Gonzalez remains popular in his district, however, and as a result, he is favored to win re-election in this race we have rated as Lean Democratic hold.

The Mountain West

In Colorado, the 8th district located outside of Denver features a competitive race between Democratic congresswoman Yadira Caraveo and her Republican opponent Gabe Evans. The 8th has been known as a bellwether district in U.S. presidential elections, having voted for the Electoral College winner in every election since 2008. Caraveo has pulled ahead in polling and fundraising, though, which bodes well for her. The Latino community, which comprises 40% of the district’s population, will be a major player in this seat, which we have rated as a Tilt Democratic hold. In the same state, the western 3rd district is also competitive but not as much as the 8th. Controversial congresswoman Lauren Boebert gave up this seat after narrowly winning by several hundred votes in 2022 and is now running instead in the more Republican-leaning 4th district. Her old Democratic foe Adam Frisch is still running for the 3rd district, however, and has had a huge cash advantage. The Republican candidate Jeff Hurd, however, is not nearly as controversial and unpopular as Boebert and is now expected to win in the Republican-leaning 3rd district. We rate this race as Lean Republican hold.

Stretching across the Mexican-American border is New Mexico’s 2nd district, represented by Democratic congressman Gabe Vasquez. He faces a rematch with his old Republican foe Yvette Herrell, who is seeking to reclaim the seat he won in 2022. The race used to be much more competitive earlier in the year. However, Vasquez has pulled ahead in polling and fundraising, and his moderate attitude on the border compared to his fellow Democrats has placed him in a favorable position. The district’s slight Democratic lean also benefits Vasquez a lot, so this race is rated as Lean Democratic hold.

To the west in Arizona, there are two Biden-won districts currently held by Republicans. The 1st district, located in the suburbs of Phoenix, has Republican congressman David Schweikert facing off against Democratic opponent Amish Shah. Schweikert, who won by less than a percentage point in 2022, is vulnerable in this leftward-trending seat. We predict that Schweikert’s career will come to an end in this election, as we predict the suburbs continuing to trend leftward. The same cannot be said for Arizona’s 6th district, where we find Republican congressman Juan Ciscomani favored in his rematch against Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel. The 6th is slightly less Democratic-leaning than the 1st, and we think that Ciscomani’s appeal to Mexican-American voters, which make a significant portion of the district’s population, in addition to the district’s Republican-friendly rural areas, will win him a second term in office. We rate the 1st and 6th districts as Tilt Democratic flip and Tilt Republican hold respectively. 

Finally, in Montana’s 1st district, Republican congressman Ryan Zinke is fighting off a challenge from Democratic opponent Monica Tranel, whom he beat in 2022. The 1st district is significantly less Republican-leaning than the 2nd district and features much of Montana’s urban areas. Montana’s competitive Senate race and the potentially high Native American turnout may help pull Tranel to victory; however recent polls show her running very much behind Senator Jon Tester. As a result, we are rating this race as Lean Republican hold.

The Pacific West

  On the West Coast, California features 6 competitive races. In the 13th and 22nd districts, which are majority-Latino, Republican congressmen John Duarte and David Valadao are in a close fight with their Democratic opponents Adam Gray and Rudy Salas. Duarte only won by over 500 votes against Gray in 2022, and now that it is a presidential year the district’s Democratic lean and Harris’s expected coattails should be enough to knock Duarte out of office. In the 22nd, which is the most Democratic-leaning district in the country to be represented by a Republican, the longer-tenured Valadao would hope for turnout to be low – his seat featured the third-lowest turnout of any district in 2022. This arguably contributed to his victory in the very Democratic-leaning seat. Given that turnout is expected to be way higher this year and that polls are showing Gray and Salas ahead in these districts, we are rating the 13th and 22nd districts as Lean Democratic flip and Tilt Democratic flip.

In California’s 27th district, Democrats are eager to oust Republican congressman Mike Garcia, who has defied the odds repeatedly as he has won three elections in this Democratic-trending district. Democratic candidate George Whitesides has outraised Garcia in the district that voted for Biden by 12% and has performed well in polling. Just like the 13th and 22nd districts, the district has a significant Latino population that will play a huge role in how the seat turns out this November. Polls have shown Whitesides ahead, and given this and the district’s proximity to heavily Democratic Los Angeles, we rate this race as Lean Democratic flip.

The suburban Orange County just south of Los Angeles features two competitive races. The 45th district features an embittered race between Republican congresswoman Michelle Steel and Democratic challenger Derek Tran. Steel has attracted controversy for suggesting she appeals better to the district’s Vietnamese American community because she is the child of parents who fled Communist-run North Korea. Steel has repeatedly ripped Tran as a communist sympathizer without any evidence and has outraised him in fundraising. Tran, on the other hand, has leaned heavily on his Vietnamese roots during this campaign. The district’s Vietnamese American population will decide this race, and while Vietnamese Americans as a whole have traditionally leaned rightward, we think that there would be some willingness within that community to elect Tran the first Vietnamese American congressman. Coupled with the fact that Biden won the district by 6% in 2024 and that it continues to trend leftward, we rate this race as Tilt Democratic flip.

In the neighboring 47th district, Democratic state senator Dave Min is seeking to claim the seat left open by failed Senate candidate Katie Porter. He faces Republican Scott Baugh, who contested the seat in 2022. Min has faced controversy before in the past, having been arrested for a DUI last year. The district, overall, has a Democratic lean which may help Min over the finish line. Taking into account the district’s leftward trend, this race is rated as Lean Democratic hold.

To the east in Riverside County is the 41st district, where Democratic challenger Will Rollins is taking on longtime Republican congressman Ken Calvert in a rematch. Rollins had held Calvert to a less than 5% margin in 2022 and is seeking to narrow the margin and finally win in this left-trending district. Calvert possesses the incumbency advantage, however, and has represented versions of his district since 1993. We think that this incumbency advantage will help Calvert win this district, but probably by a narrower margin than in 2022. We rate this race as Tilt Republican hold. 

Further north, Republican congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer is in a struggle to hold her seat in Oregon’s 5th district, which voted for Biden by nearly 9% in 2020. She faces Democratic state legislator Janelle Bynum, who is far more moderate than the progressive challenger who lost to Chavez-DeRemer two years ago. Bynum has worked to tie Chavez-DeRemer to the Republican-run House’s legislation, hoping to turn out independent voters in the Democratic-leaning seat. Bynum also leads the congresswoman in polling. These factors have driven us to rate this race as Lean Democratic flip.

In Washington’s 5th district, Democratic congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is in a rematch with Republican Joe Kent, whom she narrowly defeated last time. Perez represents a district Trump won by 4% in 2020, and was given a near-zero percent chance of winning in 2022. Her narrow win in 2022 was propelled by Kent’s far-right views. The Republican candidate has discredited COVID-19 vaccines and has claimed that the 2020 election was stolen. We feel that Kent’s views will help him lose again this time around, and so we rate this race as Tilt Democratic hold. It is worth noting that this district was the site of a ballot box that got set on fire, damaging hundreds of ballots.

Finally, we come to the Last Frontier. Alaska’s lone congresswoman Mary Peltola, a Democrat, won this seat in an upset in 2022, winning the August special election and then winning the November general by 10% against Republican former governor Sarah Palin. Republicans have alleged that ranked-choice voting was the reason she won in the first place. They have now coalesced around Nick Begich III after the state’s Republican lieutenant governor dropped out of the race to avoid another 2022 scenario. Begich, Peltola, and two other minor candidates (one from the Alaska Independence Party and the other being a Democrat incarcerated in New York) will now advance to the general in the state’s unique top-four, ranked-choice system. Begich is banking on the state’s traditional Republican lean to propel him to victory (after all Trump won Alaska by 10% in 2020). Peltola is banking on her appeal among moderate voters, turnout among Native Alaskans (a group to which she belongs), and the state’s leftward trend in recent elections. She is the lone Democrat holding federal office who has the endorsement of the pro-gun, typically Republican-favoring National Rifle Association and is also backed by Alaska’s Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. We rate this race as Tilt Democratic hold because we believe that Peltola’s unique appeal among Alaska’s electorate will prevail and that the state’s inevitable leftward shift this cycle will favor her this time.

Conclusion

If you have come to the end of this article, congratulations! This is officially the longest article on my blog. 

Overall, Republicans are slightly disadvantaged in the House due to several of their members representing Democratic-leaning districts, House Democrats’ large fundraising advantage, and the Republicans’ mismanagement of the House during their tenure. If my prediction that the Senate will flip to the Republicans is proven correct, this would be the first election cycle wherein the House and Senate flipped to two different parties. 

It is worth noting that these are just predictions. The only way to prove (or disprove) these predictions is by voting, which a lot of people seem to be doing this time around. Close elections do happen (i.e. Iowa’s 2nd district in 2020 wherein Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by just 6 votes, flipping the seat). If you haven’t voted yet, make a plan to vote. It’s not too late just yet. n the House and Senate flipped to two different parties. 

It is worth noting that these are just predictions. The only way to prove (or disprove) these predictions is by voting, which a lot of people seem to be doing this time around. Close elections do happen (i.e. Iowa’s 2nd district in 2020 wherein Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by just 6 votes, flipping the seat). If you haven’t voted yet, make a plan to vote. It’s not too late just yet.