While all eyes are on the presidential election this November, another closely-watched battle will be on who controls the United States Senate. Not only will the next president need their party to control the Senate to get their agenda passed, but Senate control is also required to confirm members of the president’s cabinet and judges – the latter having become more contentious in previous years. That being said, 34 of 100 Senate seats are up for grabs this cycle. In the current Congress, Democrats currently control 51 seats while Republicans hold 49 seats, meaning the latter would only have to flip 2 to gain control (1 if they win the presidency) Here are the 10 seats that will decide Senate control:

The state of the Senate elections, as of September 2024.
West Virginia

Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) with his pet dog, Babydog, while addressing the state legislature. Source: AP
Republicans are all but guaranteed to pick up this state’s Senate seat. West Virginia had been Donald Trump’s second-best state in the 2020 election, second only to Wyoming. The incumbent Joe Manchin was a member of the Democratic Party until he left the party earlier this year due to its positions being at odds with his rather conservative voting record. Seeing long odds in retaining this seat, Manchin is not seeking re-election.
The state’s popular Republican governor Jim Justice is running for the seat and will probably be the state’s next senator. The Republican Party’s flipping of this seat will boost their chances of taking the chamber next year.
Florida

Senator Rick Scott (R) and his opponent ex-congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D). Source: AP, Getty Images
Once viewed as the single most competitive state in elections, Florida has recently trended toward the Republicans. The warning signs of this trend first appeared in 2018, when Republican governor Rick Scott knocked off longtime Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson to become the state’s new senator. In 2020, Trump won the state again and increased his margin of victory from 1.2% in 2016 to 3.36%. In 2022, every single Republican statewide official won their election by double digits. The point is that Florida is no longer very competitive, and is now on the track to becoming a red state. This can be attributed to the growing Republican popularity among Hispanics, which has caused the usually safe Democratic Miami metro area to vote more Republican in recent years.
Incumbent senator Rick Scott is running for re-election for a second term. He faces Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman who lost re-election to her South Miami district in 2020. It will be an uphill battle for Mucarsel-Powell, who has yet to register a lead in a single poll that has been conducted thus far.
Texas

Congressman Colin Allred (D) and his opponent Senator Ted Cruz (R). Source: The Texas Tribune
Before 2018, it would have been incomprehensible to think that Texas was ever gonna vote for a Democrat again. That was before Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke held Republican incumbent Ted Cruz to a two-point margin of victory in 2018. In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won the state by 6 points – the smallest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1996. A key factor in this is the growing population of the Texas Triangle, which comprises the Dallas, Austin, and Houston metro areas. As more people move to Texas’s suburbs and cities, the more competitive the state becomes.
This is why Democratic challenger Colin Allred feels he may have a shot in ousting Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. Allred is a three-term congressman who won his first election to his House seat by unseating a long-serving Republican congressman in the Dallas suburbs. The race itself is more low-profile than the 2018 election – unlike O’Rourke, Allred has chosen to do a more low-profile campaign featuring fewer rallies and more advertising. An advantage Cruz has on his side is the growing Republican shift among Hispanics – something which has transpired in formerly solid Democratic South Texas, where Trump flipped several counties in 2020 and narrowed the margins in several Democratic-leaning ones. Just like his Florida counterpart, Allred will have an uphill battle in taking this seat. In a bit of good news for Allred, though, a recent poll showed him by one point.
Pennsylvania

Dave McCormick (R) and his opponent Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D). Source: The Philadelphia Inquirer
While Pennsylvania is one of the most competitive states in the 2024 election, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. is the slight favorite to win re-election to a fourth Senate term. He faces Republican challenger Dave McCormick, a businessman who was the runner-up against Dr. Oz in the 2022 Republican primary for the state’s other Senate seat. Oz eventually went on to lose that seat to Democrat John Fetterman.
McCormick faces long odds in taking this seat. For one, he has faced criticism in the past for only having recently moved to the state – he had spent most of his time in Connecticut before his political campaigns. McCormick also faces the fact that Casey has been re-elected by wide margins ever since the Democratic senator’s first election – Casey had won by 17% in 2006 against a Republican incumbent, and 9% and 13% against Republican challengers in 2012 and 2018 respectively. He has also led in every single poll that has been conducted thus far. However, it is a presidential election year, so Casey’s usually exemplary performances may be dragged down by the presidential ticket. McCormick may also have Trump supporters’ voter turnout work in his favor.
Wisconsin

Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) and her opponent Eric Hovde (R). Sources: AP, Eric Hovde campaign
This is yet another usually competitive state where the Democratic incumbent is favored. Tammy Baldwin is running for re-election to a third term and is facing Republican challenger and businessman Eric Hovde. The race features some parallels to the Pennsylvania race. For one, the Democratic incumbent has led in the vast majority of polls. Additionally, the Republican candidate has faced criticism for having lived and worked in California for most of the time prior to his 2024 candidacy.
However, Wisconsin is different than Pennsylvania. Wisconsin’s other Senate seat is held by a Republican. Additionally, Trump lost Wisconsin in 2020 by a narrower margin than he did in Pennsylvania. Just like Casey in Pennsylvania, Baldwin’s overall performance this November may be dragged down by how Kamala Harris performs in the state this November.
Nevada

Senator Jacky Rosen (D) and her opponent Sam Brown (R). Source: TNS/AP
While Nevada has voted Democratic in presidential elections since 2004, it has always been competitive at the federal level. In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen is running for a second term in office, facing off against Republican candidate Sam Brown, a former military officer.
Brown has a compelling military background, having served in Afghanistan. An encounter with an IED burned thirty percent of his body, and he survived despite his condition. However, this compelling background story may not be enough to sway voters in this race. Incumbent senator Rosen has led in just about every single poll as of now. One good thing going for Brown is Nevada’s recent electoral history; in 2022 Nevadans voted out their Democratic governor. The polls show a close race in the presidential election, with both Harris and Trump running around even. Brown would have to hope for Trump’s coattails to drag him towards victory.
Michigan

Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D) and her opponent ex-congressman Mike Rogers (R). Source: Getty Images
In yet another competitive state on the presidential level, the Democratic candidate has the slight advantage. Incumbent Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and Democratic congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is fighting to replace her. She faces former Republican congressman Mike Rogers in the general.
A lot has been going good for Democrats in recent years. The last Republican to have won Michigan statewide was Donald Trump in 2016. In 2018, Democrats took control of all statewide offices, and in 2022 they took control of both houses of the state legislature. Democrats have held both of the state’s Senate seats since 2001 and have held a majority in the congressional delegation since 2023. What has not helped Rogers is the infighting inside the Michigan Republican Party after the poor results of the 2022 elections, which has resulted in poor funding and missing of campaign finance reporting deadlines. As a result, Slotkin has led Rogers in most polls and is considered the slight favorite to hold this seat for the Democrats.
Arizona

Kari Lake (R) and her opponent Congressman Ruben Gallego (D). Source: AP
This seat is essential to retaining Democratic control of the Senate. Incumbent independent senator Kyrsten Sinema is retiring after just one term. Like West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, she had developed a conservative voting record but had faced backlash among fellow Arizona Democrats, with the state party’s executive committee even voting to censure her in 2022 after she decided not to help pass a voting rights bill. Sinema left the party in 2022.
The Democrat aiming to replace her is Congressman Ruben Gallego, who has led his Republican opponent Kari Lake, a former gubernatorial candidate, in most polls. Lake, a former journalist, had become notorious after she claimed that the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial race was stolen, and had attempted many baseless attempts at overturning the results. This notoriety and Arizona’s recent trend towards the Democratic Party (which currently holds the governorship, most statewide officials, and both of the state’s Senate seats) seem to aiding Gallego as the narrow favorite in the race. The presidential race, however, may produce downballot effect that would aid Kari Lake in her quest to take this Senate seat.
Ohio

Senator Sherrod Brown (D) and his opponent Bernie Moreno (R). Source: Getty Images
This seat features one of two Democratic senators seeking re-election in a state Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. Incumbent Sherrod Brown is running for re-election and is facing Republican opponent Bernie Moreno. Ohio is no longer a competitive state; Republicans control all other statewide offices including the state’s other Senate seat. Trump had won Ohio by more than 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Both Brown and Moreno are running on populist campaigns.
Having served since 2007, Brown has remained popular among his constituents. He had come into office by defeating Republican Senator Mike DeWine (who now serves as the state’s governor) and was re-elected comfortably in 2012 and 2018. Brown has also led in every poll that has been conducted thus far, although recent polls have narrowed. Therefore, he has the edge in this race – a race that would be essential to keeping Democratic control of the Senate alive.
Montana

Senator Jon Tester (D) and his opponent Tim Sheehy (R). Source: States Newsroom, Tim Sheehy campaign
This is perhaps the most important Senate election of the cycle. Democratic senator Jon Tester is the most vulnerable incumbent – he is running for re-election in a state Trump won by double digits in 2016 and 2020. Republicans control every single statewide office and both houses of the state legislature.
Tester does have a few things going for him. First, he is one of the most popular senators in the country. Second, he defeated a Republican senator in his first run for the seat in 2006, and has been re-elected to two more terms in and 2012 and 2018. Third, Montana historically has tended to ticket-split, meaning Republican voters would vote for Democratic politicians and vice versa. Because of these factors, Tester should not be counted out just yet. It should be noted though that his Republican opponent Tim Sheehy, a veteran, has led several recent polls and as a result has taken a slight edge over Tester. Sheehy’s veteran background aids him in a state where a significant portion of the population are veterans. This race will be Tester’s toughest election to date, as he will be fighting for his political career as an underdog.
Overview
The Democrats are likely set to lose control of the Senate this cycle. Losing West Virginia puts them at 50 seats. Montana seems to be slipping from their grasp. Texas and Florida seem to be far out of reach for them. Republicans are likely to control around 51 seats come January if the current trends hold up.
There is still some hope for the Democrats though, as they have strong incumbents who have won tough elections before. A lot can change between now and November. But for now, Democratic chances in keeping the chambers seem bleak.
Click here for more information on my current predictions for the elections in November.
Emil Ordonez, a rising college freshman, is the founder and editor-in-chief of Polinsights. He has been deeply passionate about politics and history since learning every U.S. President at the age of five. He was compelled to start this blog after meeting many people who were misinformed or had become apathetic about how society worked. He hopes to provide factual knowledge and insights that will encourage people, especially the young, to get more engaged in their respective communities. In his free time, he edits for Wikipedia and makes maps for elections. He aspires to work in Congress or even the White House in the future.
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