To the Bitter End

It is no surprise that the 2024 United States elections are slated to be highly competitive. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both campaigning to the bitter end, hoping to win over whatever undecided voters remain in swing states across the country. In Congress, Democrats and Republicans are locked in a fierce battle, with the Democrats in an uphill fight to hold on to the Senate as Republicans seek to defend their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. Early voting has also started in several states, with millions of people already having voted. No matter what the outcome of the election may be, it is destined to be divisive and disappointing to large swaths of the electorate.

With this article being two weeks in the making, here’s a look at how the election stands today and what to watch as it draws closer. 

The Presidency:

As of today, the presidential election remains a tossup, with no presidential candidate having a clear lead. The Harris-Walz ticket is currently forecasted as heavily favored or likely to win 18 states, plus the District of Columbia and Nebraska’s 2nd district with a total of 226 electoral votes leaning toward her. Her strongest regions comprise the highly urbanized West Coast and Northeast. The vast majority of these states have voted for Democratic presidential candidates since the 1990s. 

On the other hand, the Trump-Vance ticket is heavily favored to win 24 states, plus Maine’s 2nd district, with a total of 219 electoral votes leaning toward him. His strongest regions comprise the rural Great Plains and Rocky Mountains states and much of the South. 

As usual, the road to 270 electoral votes, which is the required number of electoral votes needed to win the presidency, lies in the hands of seven swing states with a total of 93 electoral votes. 

The Rust Belt:

In the Rust Belt, the former Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are up for grabs. Formerly regarded as safe Democratic-leaning states, they unexpectedly flipped to Trump’s column in 2016 and have remained close in elections. Although Democratic President Joe Biden won these three states in his successful 2020 bid for the presidency, Kamala Harris will be fighting to keep these states in the Democratic column. Polls in all three states have generally shown narrow leads for the Harris campaign. Ultimately, turnout will decide how these states will vote. 

In Michigan, Kamala Harris faces the threat of decreased turnout among dissatisfied Arab voters, who are angry at the Biden administration’s continued support of Israel. The Harris campaign will have to work to increase turnout in strongly Democratic Wayne County, home to Detroit, and hope that formerly Republican-leaning suburban areas, particularly in western Michigan and the Detroit suburbs continue to trend Democratic, as it has been in recent elections. If previous elections are an indicator, Donald Trump will once again perform strongly among the state’s white working-class voters, which will keep the state of Michigan close coming into Election Day. A particular county to watch would be Kent County, home to Grand Rapids. Formerly a Republican-leaning county, it flipped to the Democrats in 2020 and will be important to watch in 2024. 

Harris campaigns in Madison, Wisconsin. Source: AP

In Wisconsin, Kamala Harris faces a similar challenge with white working-class voters continuing to trend toward Trump and the Republicans. In 2020, Trump held on to many areas of the state, particularly in the western portion, that used to vote Democratic. Harris will have to rely on increased turnout in heavily Democratic Milwaukee and Dane County, where the state capital of Madison is located, in order to win the state. She will also have to make inroads in the strongly Republican WOW counties, which comprise Milwaukee’s suburbs and have trended toward the Democrats in recent elections. An important county to watch is Door County, which is located in the northeastern corner of the state and has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1996. 

Trump returns to campaign in Butler, Pennsylvania, months after his assassination attempt in the city. Source: AP

The biggest electoral prize among the swing states is Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes. It has been an eventful campaign in the state, with Trump being shot in the city of Butler back in July and the only Harris-Trump debate being held in Philadelphia. Once again, it will come down to turnout. Kamala Harris’s biggest weapons are the heavily Democratic cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where she would have to run up the margins with Black voters. Harris also has to ensure that the Philadelphia suburbs continue to trend toward the Democrats. As for Trump, running up the margins with white working-class voters will be essential in trying to win the state. Important counties to watch are Erie County and Northampton County, industrial counties located in the northwest and northeast portions of the state respectively and that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Another county to watch for is Lackawanna County, home to the blue-collar city of Scranton and Joe Biden’s birthplace – Donald Trump has room to improve here due to Biden’s withdrawal, which could tip the state over to his column.

The Sun Belt:

In the southwest, Nevada has voted Democratic since the 2008 election but has noticeably become more competitive in recent elections. Inflation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic hit the state hard, and Nevada started leaning towards Trump in initial polls conducted between the former president and President Biden. With Biden now out, Kamala Harris from neighboring California has polled better in the state. To keep the state in the Democratic column, Kamala Harris would have to hold on to Clark County, anchored by Las Vegas, and Washoe County, anchored by Reno. These two counties comprise 89% of the state’s population, and winning them by strong margins would be enough to keep Nevada blue. Kamala Harris has also secured an endorsement by the Culinary Workers Union, whose turnout in presidential elections has been instrumental to Democratic victories in the state. However, Donald Trump is being aided by the recent trend of Latinos toward the Republican Party. Nevada’s significant Latino population will be instrumental in how the state votes this November.

Trump makes a visit to the border wall. Source: AP

Further south is the state of Arizona, which was formerly Republican-leaning until Trump’s election in 2016. The election there will come down to the state’s most populous county – Maricopa County, which is home to half the state’s population and houses the state capital Phoenix. Since Trump’s election in 2016, Arizona has experienced a trend toward the Democratic Party. Democrats won both of Arizona’s Senate seats, the governorship, and several statewide offices in recent years, with Joe Biden being the first Democrat to win the state since 1996. What has been essential to Democratic successes in Arizona are disaffected suburban Republican voters who were fans of the late Senator John McCain and have been turned off by Donald Trump. Kamala Harris, who has earned an endorsement from the Republican mayor of Mesa – one of the cities in the Phoenix metropolitan area, has to work to keep these voters on her side. Hispanics are also another group to watch, as they have been trending toward the Republican Party in recent years, and will be essential to win over in what will most likely be a narrow election in the state of Arizona. The topic of immigration has given the Republicans an advantage in Arizona, which lies on the Mexican border and has reported its concerns about recent migrant crossings. 

Harris campaigning in North Carolina. Source: AFP/Getty Images

Pivoting to the southeast, Harris and Trump are also both competing over Georgia and North Carolina. Both home to a significant number of Black voters and suburban areas, they are bound to be very competitive this November. In 2020, due to the Atlanta metro’s strong shift toward the Democratic Party, Georgia was won by a Democrat for the first time since 1992. Kamala Harris will have to make sure turnout in the majority-Black areas of overwhelmingly Democratic Atlanta is strong and that the suburbs keep on trending leftward. North Carolina is a different story, with Republicans having won the state since 2012 albeit by very narrow margins. Democrats see an opening here due to the numerous controversies surrounding Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who has lagged by double digits behind his Democratic opponent in recent polls. They have touted Trump’s endorsement of him in various TV ads. Ultimately, what Kamala Harris needs to do to win North Carolina is to hope the suburbs keep on shifting to the Democrats and that Black turnout is very high.

Potential Battlegrounds:

Of course, people have been wondering about Texas and Florida. There have been various opinions about whether both states can go blue or not. Ultimately, these two states will most likely stay in the Republican column this election, as the vast majority of polls have indicated. 

Florida, which in the past has gained notoriety for the closeness of its elections, has been shifting rightward due to the migration of out-of-state retirees to the state who mostly skew Republican and also due to the overall shift of Hispanics toward the Republican Party. This rightward shift was further exemplified by Republican candidates winning the state by landslide margins in the 2022 midterms. It will be interesting, though, to watch how Kamala Harris performs in traditionally blue Miami-Dade County, where the Democratic underperformance in 2020 arguably led to Joe Biden losing the state. Republicans have been gaining among Cuban voters who are particularly predominant in that county.

Texas, of course, has some of the fastest Democratic trends in the country. The state went from Republican Mitt Romney winning by 16% in 2012 to Donald Trump winning by a little over 5% in 2020. It would not be surprising if the margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump this November becomes tighter than four years ago. It will be interesting to watch South Texas, where the formerly solid blue Hispanic-majority counties trended Republican in 2020, and the suburbs of the so-called “Texas Triangle”, including the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Austin metros, which has seen a lot of population growth in recent years and has shifted towards the Democrats. Tarrant County, home to Fort Worth, is especially indicative of this trend, with Trump winning it by 9% in 2016 and losing it by less than a percentage point to Joe Biden in 2020. 

The Senate:

I have already covered the Senate in an entirely different article, which you can read about here. But I will comment on a couple of additional developments. 

Democrats continue to have the advantage over most of their Republican opponents in swing states. Polling has been strong for the Democratic candidates in Arizona and Nevada, and Democratic candidates in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have performed admirably in polling as well, although Republican challengers in these races have narrowed their leads somewhat. However, due to the influx of polls showing Democratic senator Jon Tester down by several points in Montana, that seat will probably flip to the Republicans. Republicans only need two seats to flip the Senate. With the West Virginia seat guaranteed to flip to the GOP and Tester’s troubling polling numbers, a miracle would need to happen to help Democrats retain control of the Senate. Democrats also have to play defense in Ohio, where Republican candidate Bernie Moreno has started to erase Democratic senator Sherrod Brown’s leads in polls. Additionally, in an interesting move, Democrats have started pouring money into the previously noncompetitive Florida and Texas Senate races, although it may be far too late to change anything in those races. 

Retiring Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and his Democratic counterpart Chuck Schumer at a ceremony to present the Congressional Gold Medal to Filipino-American veterans. Source: Reuters

Another point to add is the unusually competitive Senate race in deep-red Nebraska, where polling has shown independent candidate Dan Osborn leading Republican senator Deb Fischer. The polls there have been peculiarly close for a very Republican state. Osborn has emphasized his lack of party affiliation and has run on populist themes, trying to portray Fischer as an out-of-touch incumbent. It seems to work polling-wise. However, I still expect Fischer to win there due to the strong Republican lean of the state.

This election cycle will be the last in which Mitch McConnell will lead the Senate Republicans. McConnell, who is the longest-serving Senate leader and has been plagued by bad health rumors, will step down by the end of the current Congress in January. 

The House: 

It has been a very turbulent two years for the House, starting with a contested Speakership vote and seeing the removal of that Speaker, an expulsion for the first time in years, and the failure to pass a permanent, coherent budget. The House has been very unproductive owing in part to divisions within the slim Republican majority. Speaker Mike Johnson will aim to keep the Speaker’s gavel for another two years. 

The House of Representatives elections are very hard to predict. Right now, there are 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the House, with 218 needed to control the chamber. Only a small number of seats would be needed to take House control. The fate of the House lies in how 36 competitive congressional districts will vote this November, and they are all over the place. These districts are primarily suburban in nature.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and Republican Speaker Mike Johnson talking during a lying-in-state ceremony at the Capitol. Source: Getty Images

Seeing as more Republicans are representing Biden-won districts than Democrats representing Trump-won districts, the Democrats have an advantage in that regard. Democrats are favored to flip 5 seats alone mostly due to redistricting – two new majority-Black districts in Alabama and Louisiana, two seats in New York, and a district in Nebraska that has trended rapidly Democratic. Democrats also have more opportunities – they can maybe knock off Republican incumbents in Biden-won districts in California, upstate New York, and Oregon. Other opportunities for the Democrats to play offense exist in districts based in Arizona, South Iowa, and western New Jersey, with some “reach” opportunities including districts in western Montana, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Virginia Beach. 

The factors above hypothetically would be enough to take control of the House, but Democrats have some defense to play. Republicans are guaranteed to pick up three seats in North Carolina alone due to redistricting and may pick up a fourth seat based in eastern North Carolina. Democratic incumbents are playing defense in the Trump-won districts of Alaska, rural Maine, southwest Washington, and northeast Pennsylvania. There are also other competitive districts to worry about – Democratic incumbents are trying to hold on to districts such as those in the suburbs of Denver, Colorado, northern Ohio, and southern New Mexico. Additionally, Democrats are defending open seats in central Michigan and central Virginia – all of which are also very competitive. 

Ultimately, be prepared for the House of Representatives to be as close this November as it was in 2020 and 2022, when Democrats and Republicans respectively won very narrow House majorities. The days of large House majorities are over for now.

And Finally…

More information on my forecasts for the elections can be found on this page. It is also on that page, where, a few days before Election Day itself, I will release a final prediction of the 2024 elections where there are no tossups and which I will predict a winner in every single federal race in the country. 

As the election comes closer and closer, it is important that all eligible U.S. citizens must be registered to vote. It does not matter if you are in a state that will be won by Harris or Trump by strong margins anyway; your vote can also determine close Senate and House races and even lower-level races such as governorships and state legislative races. Your vote will decide the future of America and will have implications for the world at large. Notice how the only other election foreigners care about other than the election in their own country is the U.S. election. 

If you are eligible and have not yet registered to vote, visit vote.org. It takes only a few minutes to register. Every vote counts.