2026 U.S. Midterm Election Forecast

Updated @ 5:30 PM ET on September 28, 2025

Senate Election Forecast

Current Seat Count:

Republicans – 53
Democrats – 47 (includes 2 independents who caucus with them)

Seat Forecast:

Republicans – 51
Democrats – 45 (includes 2 independents who caucus with them)
Tossup – 4
51 seats needed to win control (50 with the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote)

House of Representatives Election Forecast

Current Seat Count:

Republicans – 219
Democrats – 214
Vacant – 2

Seat Forecast:

Democrats – 201
Republicans – 197
Tossup – 18 + 19 Ohio and Utah seats to be redistricted
218 needed to win control

Gubernatorial Election Forecast (2025-26)

Current Governors:

Republicans – 27
Democrats – 23

Seat Forecast:

Republicans – 17
Democrats – 16
Tossup – 5

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