2026 U.S. Midterm Election Forecast

Updated on January 29, 2026

Senate Election Forecast

Current Seat Count:

Republicans – 53
Democrats – 47 (includes 2 independents who caucus with them)

Seat Forecast:

Republicans – 51
Democrats – 47 (includes 2 independents who caucus with them)
Tossup – 2
51 seats needed to win control (50 with the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote)

House of Representatives Election Forecast

Seat Count Heading into November 2026:

Republicans – 218
Democrats – 213
Vacant – 4

Seat Forecast:

Democrats – 213
Republicans – 206
Tossup – 16
218 needed to win control

Gubernatorial Election Forecast

Current Governors:

Republicans – 27
Democrats – 23

Seat Forecast:

Republicans – 17
Democrats – 14
Tossup – 5

Note: Maps were made with yapms.com