Election Day was a bloodbath for Democrats. Against all odds, Donald Trump has won a second term against Vice President Kamala Harris, and in doing so will potentially carry every single swing state. He will be the first Republican to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004. It was also a bad night for the rest of the Democratic Party, as they lost control of the Senate and remain the underdogs in a tight battle for control of the House.
It may have shocked many observers, but this result does not surprise me at all. I predicted Harris would win, but I did warn that a lot of people wanted Trump back and could help deliver victory for him. However, I underestimated just how many people wanted him back.
So what went wrong for Kamala Harris? The answer is quite simple. In hindsight, her loss was inevitable.
First, she was too attached to Joe Biden. She was his Vice President, and her name was tagged on every single accomplishment or project Biden carried out. The Biden-Harris this, the Biden-Harris that. Harris went on TV and said she would not change a single thing from Biden’s decisions. That was unwise of her to do. Most Americans loathe Joe Biden. His approvals hover in the low 40s and high 30s. Harris may be his Vice President, but she should have distanced herself away from him as much as possible. Americans looked at the outcome of four years of Biden and saw it as a failure.
President Biden’s average approval rating. Source: 538
Second, Trump won because of the economy. Throughout much of the Biden presidency, inflation rates and gas prices were high. This has been observed as an overall global trend: sitting governments/administrations usually get swept out of power when the economy is perceived to be bad. Look at the United Kingdom where the ruling Conservatives lost after 14 years in power. Look at South Africa where the ruling African National Congress lost its majority in Parliament for the first time. Although job numbers and the stocks performed well during the Biden presidency, Americans still saw the Biden presidency as bad. They looked at Trump’s presidency, saw the better economy he had under his term pre-COVID, and wanted to go back to that. As Jim Carville says, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Ultimately, Trump won because Democrats kept on talking about “Trump bad, Democrats virtuous.” Americans wanted to hear about the issues. They wanted to hear about what a Harris administration would do for the economy. While the Harris campaign did put what they planned to do on their website, they spent more time amplifying Trump’s character flaws than actually addressing the issues.
As a result, every single state in the country swung to the Republicans. My home state, New Jersey, voted for Joe Biden by 16% in 2020; Harris carried it by only 5% this time around. Harris underperformed among urban voters who typically skew Democratic, underperformed among suburban voters who people thought were going to swing Democratic this election, and got crushed even more in rural areas that were already Republican-leaning. She did not outperform Joe Biden in any single county (although the states on the West Coast haven’t finished counting yet). Harris underperformed with many demographic groups, most notably the 18-29 year old voter group and Hispanics. Americans saw the economy, said it looked bad and voted for Trump to return to a better economy like the pre-COVID economy.
This election is a total repudiation of the Democratic Party and their four years in the White House. Voters did not buy what they were selling. President Biden’s unpopularity was too great to overcome. Trump has won the popular vote and now has a clear mandate to lead.
Emil Ordonez, a rising college freshman, is the founder and editor-in-chief of Polinsights. He has been deeply passionate about politics and history since learning every U.S. President at the age of five. He was compelled to start this blog after meeting many people who were misinformed or had become apathetic about how society worked. He hopes to provide factual knowledge and insights that will encourage people, especially the young, to get more engaged in their respective communities. In his free time, he edits for Wikipedia and makes maps for elections. He aspires to work in Congress or even the White House in the future.
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