2026 U.S. Gubernatorial Election Predictions

The ratings, explained:

Safe D/R – A heavily favored party is virtually guaranteed to win. The opposing party has little realistic chance of winning under normal political circumstances. 

Very Likely D/R – The favored party has an overwhelming advantage. An upset is possible but would require an unusually strong shift in the political environment. 

Likely D/R – The favored party is clearly ahead and is expected to win, barring a significant change in the race.  

Lean D/R – The favored party has a modest advantage but faces meaningful competition. The race could become competitive with relatively small shifts in voter preferences. 

Tilt D/R – The favored party has a very narrow advantage. The race is essentially a toss-up, with a slight edge toward one party. 

Tossup – Neither party has a discernible advantage. Both candidates have roughly equal chances of winning.

For the purposes of this article, I will not use any tossups.

Race Summaries:

For brevity’s sake, I will only talk about races rated as Tilt, Lean, and Likely D/R

Florida

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+13

Rating: Lean R
Republicans have nominated southwest Florida congressman Byron Donalds as their preferred successor to outgoing governor Ron DeSantis. On the other hand, the Democrats nominated yet another former Republican, David Jolly, who served in Congress whilst a member of the GOP. While Donalds is the clear favorite in this state due to holding a fundraising advantage and the state’s partisan lean, Jolly still has an opening. Republicans have had a poor early voting period and are hoping for a very strong turnout on Election Day. There is also a possibility that Florida’s Latino population has shifted towards the Democratic Party, and it’s clear Democrats see an opening here as they have been sending more money to the state lately. If E-Day turnout is weak for the GOP, Jolly could eke out a win. 

Georgia

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+2

Rating: Tilt D (flip)

Incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp is ineligible to run for re-election. In his stead, the GOP has nominated billionaire businessman Rick Jackson, who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars to win against Democratic former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. However, one can observe from early voting that Black enthusiasm and turnout is up, while white turnout is down. This favors Bottoms, of course. Additionally, Senator Jon Ossoff is expected to do very well, and his coattails would drag Bottoms over the finish line. 

New Hampshire

Incumbent running: Kelly Ayotte (R)

2024 Vote: Harris+3

Rating: Likely R

New Hampshire is one of two states, the other being Vermont, that elects its governors to two-year terms. Incumbent governor Kelly Ayotte, first elected in 2024 by a landslide victory, is in a strong position to win a second term, having had positive approval ratings and a fundraising advantage. She has led her Democratic opponent, Cinde Warmington in the polls by a healthy margin. Unlike the federal level, New Hampshire tends to be more Republican at the state level. Nevertheless, this is still a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2000 and has not sent Republicans to Washington since 2014, so Ayotte is not totally out of the woods yet, considering the unfavorable political environment for Republicans. 

Vermont

Incumbent running: Phil Scott (R)

2024 Vote: Harris+32

Rating: Lean R

After five two-year terms, governor Phil Scott is in what is perhaps the toughest gubernatorial election of his career. Scott is unlike the average Republican, holding socially liberal positions on a number of issues, and has endorsed Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024. Due to his moderatism, Scott has been ranked several times as the nation’s most popular governor and has typically won re-election by a landslide. However, polls are suggesting that Scott is slipping in the polls while his Democratic opponent, Amanda Janoo, is gaining ground. Scott’s increased use of the veto against the Democratic-controlled state legislature’s progressive initiatives has also caused some consternation in one of the most strongly Democratic states in the country. Nonetheless, incumbents in Vermont rarely lose re-election, and it can be assumed that while Scott’s crossover support has begun to crumble, it has not crumbled enough to point to a Scott loss. 

Ohio

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+11

Rating: Lean D (flip)

The race between Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, a one-time candidate for president in 2024, and Democratic former state health director Amy Acton, who was prominent in the state during the COVID-19 pandemic, to replace outgoing Ohio governor Mike DeWine is perhaps the nastiest and ugliest race in the country. Acton has sought to portray Ramaswamy as an out-of-touch billionaire and con artist. On the other hand, Ramaswamy has sought to portray Acton as dishonest and mentally ill. A few weeks ago, the Ramaswamy campaign had the audacity to run an advertisement featuring Acton’s mother calling her a liar. For the record, Acton is estranged from her mother because she had lost custody of her and her brother when she was 12; Acton’s stepfather had been charged with raping her. The ad has received bipartisan condemnation, although Ramaswamy and top GOP figures such as President Trump and Vice President Vance defended it. In the end, this ad has caused a loss of support for Ramaswamy, helping Acton pull ahead and become the favorite to win the governorship; she would be the first Democratic governor elected since Ted Strickland in 2006.

Kansas

Incumbent running: OPEN (Dem incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+16

Rating: Tilt R (flip)
While it has not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, the state of Kansas has had a long-standing tradition of splitting its ticket at the gubernatorial level, electing multiple Democratic governors in the last few decades. The Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly is popular in the state, even holding a higher approval rating in the state than President Trump. As a result, the race for Kansas governor is competitive. Democratic state senator Cindy Holscher is facing off against Republican state senate president Ty Masterson. History favors Masterson here; since 1957 neither political party has held the governor’s mansion for more than two consecutive terms. Masterson has also led in recent polling. Nevertheless, the two candidates are within single digits in polling, and a competitive race at the Senate level also keeps this race competitive. 

Michigan

Incumbent running: OPEN (Dem incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+1.4

Rating: Likely D

While Michigan has voted for Trump in two of the last three presidential elections, Republicans have fared poorly in winning statewide races since 2018. In 2022, Governor Gretchen Whitmer and her fellow statewide Democratic officeholders won re-election in landslide victories, marking a blue wave in the state. This year, one of those officeholders, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, is running to replace Whitmer. Benson actually performed better than Whitmer’s 10.5-point margin of victory in 2022, winning re-election by 14 points. Benson faces off against Republican congressman John James, who ran for the Senate in 2018 and 2020 but came up short both times. It looks certain that James will once again lose in his third statewide bid, as Benson has led in the polls and the Republican Party’s unpopularity in the state is dragging him down. 

Oklahoma

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+34

Rating: Likely R

Oklahoma is one of the reddest states in the country. However, Republican gubernatorial candidates tend to underperform in elections. Current governor Kevin Stitt’s approval rating has also been underwater in recent years. After surviving a tough primary against the state’s attorney general, who was perceived as the more moderate of the two, Republican former state senator Mike Mazzei is running to keep the governorship in GOP hands. He faces off against Democratic state representative Cyndi Munson. It has been said that behind the scenes, there is set to be a close race between the two. Recent but limited public polling has also suggested the same thing. Nevertheless, Mazzei is favored over Munson due to the state’s strong Republican lean. 

Texas

Incumbent running: Greg Abbott (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+14

Rating: Tilt R

Incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott is in the toughest race of his political career. Initially viewed as the favorite to win re-election to a fourth term, his seemingly safe bid has been derailed by Democratic state legislator Gina Hinojosa, who has put up a tough populist fight focusing on opposition to data centers and private school vouchers despite being outraised heavily. While the polls in this race have been close, with some even showing a Hinojosa lead, Hinojosa has been underperforming fellow Democrat James Talarico in the Senate. Abbott is still the slight favorite due to his incumbency and fundraising, albeit much less so than earlier in the year.

Arizona

Incumbent running: Katie Hobbs (D)

2024 Vote: Trump+6

Rating: Likely D

After winning a very tight race in 2022 in somewhat of an upset, incumbent Democratic governor Katie Hobbs is the favorite this year to win a second term. Her Republican opponent, Congressman Andy Biggs, trails in fundraising and polling by a comfortable margin. Arizona is a pretty moderate state, and it appears that voters are turned off by Biggs’s far-right views. Still, Arizona is a purple state, so this race could still be decided by a margin of 10%. 

Iowa

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+13

Rating: Likely D (flip)

Incumbent Republican governor Kim Reynolds was eligible to seek re-election to a third term, but chose not to, probably because of her low approval ratings. Democratic state auditor Rob Sand, who became the last remaining statewide Democratic officeholder following the 2022 elections, has become the favorite to win the governorship and be elected as Iowa’s first Democratic governor since 2006. Sand has attracted strong support from independents and moderates due to building a statewide reputation for watching government spending and fighting corruption. This has led to Sand leading his Republican opponent, businessman Zach Lahn, in fundraising and every single poll conducted thus far. Lahn, who won the Republican primary in an upset, has been slammed as a carpetbagger for having lived in Kansas until 2023 and frequently traveling to that state. 

Nebraska

Incumbent running: Jim Pillen (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+20

Rating: Likely R

This should not be a close race, but incumbent Republican governor Jim Pillen has suffered from low approval ratings over a number of localized controversies. This race also happens to have four main candidates: the Democratic nominee, former state senator Lynne Walz, America First nominee Brett Lindstrom, and Legal Marijuana NOW nominee Rick Beard. Lindstrom in particular has been shown to pull away right-wing support from Pillen in polling, thus creating a closer-than-usual race between Pillen and Walz in polling. To be clear, Pillen is still favored to win, but probably by a smaller margin than what is usual for Republicans in the state. 

Wisconsin

Incumbent running: OPEN (Dem incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+1

Rating: Lean D

Incumbent Democratic governor Tony Evers is not running for re-election, and until August Democrats were fretting over this race due to the possibility that democratic socialist Francesca Hong would win the Democratic nomination; Hong had faced scrutiny for her past statements supporting defunding the police and criticizing the holiday of Thanksgiving. Unfortunately for Hong, moderate and establishment Democrats coalesced in a last-ditch effort to nominate Milwaukee County executive David Crowley, who won the primary in an upset and put Democratic bedwetting over this election somewhat to rest. Crowley is the favorite over Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany, leading him comfortably in polling and benefiting from the Republican Party’s unpopularity in the state. 

Nevada

Incumbent running: Joe Lombardo (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+3

Rating: Tilt D (flip)

Incumbent Republican governor Joe Lombardo is running for re-election for a second term. He is being challenged by Democratic state attorney general Aaron Ford, who is perhaps the strongest candidate the Democratic Party could put up. Lombardo is a moderate Republican who is relatively popular. However, Democrats have put up such a big advantage in the early vote, and Nevada is suffering from an economic crisis. At this point, I view Lombardo as the slight underdog against Ford.

Oregon

Incumbent running: Tina Kotek (D)

2024 Vote: Harris+14

Rating: Lean D

Kotek is one of the country’s least popular governors due to poor local conditions in the state. This has given an opening to Republicans, who have once again nominated their 2022 candidate Christine Drazan to take on Kotek. The 2022 matchup between Kotek and Drazan was also close, but largely due to a third-party candidate siphoning votes from Kotek. This year, there is no third-party candidate, but Drazan narrowly trails Kotek in the polls. Kotek is still the favorite, however, due to the state’s strong Democratic lean and the national environment being unfavorable for Republicans. Democratic candidates for governor have long underperformed in their electoral performances in the state. 

Alaska

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+13

Rating: Likely D (flip)

Due to the Republican vote being fractured between three candidates, a large fundraising advantage, and cross-party endorsements, former state representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins quickly emerged as the favorite to be elected as Alaska’s first Democratic governor since Tony Knowles in 2002. He finished in first place in the nonpartisan top-four primary, ahead of fellow Democrat Tom Begich, Republican activist Bernadette Wilson, and former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson. Begich chose to drop out and support Kreiss-Tomkins, paving the way for former Alaska attorney general Treg Taylor to advance to the general election. Wilson, Bronson, and Taylor have clashed repeatedly, and none of them ended up dropping out before the deadline to do so, thus splintering the GOP vote. It has also been indicated in polls that some of these candidates’ voters may not rank the other Republican candidates. It is through this infighting that Kreiss-Tomkins will be elected as governor. He has also been endorsed by several prominent Republicans, such as Senator Lisa Murkowski and her father, former Governor Frank Murkowski. 

Here is a list of races I do not consider competitive this year:

Safe D	Very Likely D	Very Likely R	Safe R
California (OPEN) Colorado (OPEN) Connecticut (Lamont) Hawaii (Green) Illinois (Pritzker) Maryland (Moore) Massachusetts (Healey) New York (Hochul) Pennsylvania (Shapiro)	Maine (OPEN) Minnesota (OPEN) New Mexico (OPEN) Rhode Island (OPEN)	Alabama (OPEN) South Carolina (OPEN)	Arkansas (Sanders) Idaho (Little) South Dakota (Rhoden) Tennessee (OPEN) Wyoming (OPEN)