The ratings, explained:
Solid D/R- A heavily favored party is virtually guaranteed to win. The opposing party has little realistic chance of winning under normal political circumstances.
Very Likely D/R – The favored party has an overwhelming advantage. An upset is possible but would require an unusually strong shift in the political environment.
Likely D/R – The favored party is clearly ahead and is expected to win, barring a significant change in the race.
Lean D/R – The favored party has a modest advantage but faces meaningful competition. The race could become competitive with relatively small shifts in voter preferences.
Tilt D/R – The favored party has a very narrow advantage. The race is essentially a toss-up, with a slight edge toward one party.
Tossup – Neither party has a discernible advantage. Both candidates have roughly equal chances of winning.
Here’s a list of the competitive House races this year, and how I think each district will vote:
| Likely D (11) | Lean D (14) | Tilt D (13) | Tilt R (17) | Lean R (7) | Likely R (19) |
| AZ-01 (flip) AZ-06 (flip) CO-08 (flip) IA-03 (flip) NJ-07 (flip) NC-11 (flip) PA-07 (flip) PA-10 (flip) TX-34 VA-02 (flip) WA-03 | FL-14 FL-25 IA-02 (flip) MI-07 (flip) MI-10 (flip) MT-01 (flip) NY-17 (flip) NC-01 OH-07 (flip) OH-09 PA-08 (flip) TX-15 (flip) VA-01 (flip) WI-03 (flip) | AL-02 AZ-02 (flip) CO-03 (flip) CO-05 (flip) FL-22 KY-06 (flip) MI-04 (flip) MO-02 (flip) PA-01 (flip) SC-01 (flip) TX-23 (flip) TX-35 VA-05 (flip) | AK-AL AR-02 CO-04 FL-07 FL-09 (flip) FL-13 FL-27 IN-05 ME-02 (flip) MN-01 NE-01 NV-02 NY-01 NY-21 OH-10 OH-15 WI-01 | FL-04 FL-16 NJ-02 NC-03 NC-07 NC-09 NC-13 | FL-26 GA-01 GA-12 KS-02 MD-01 MI-01 MN-08 NC-05 NC-06 NC-08 NC-10 NC-14 OK-05 TN-05 TN-09 (flip) TX-09 (flip) TX-32 (flip) WA-05 WI-08 |
Among races considered non-competitive, there are 199 districts rated as Solid D, 9 districts rated as Very Likely D, 31 districts rated as Very Likely R, and 115 districts rated as Solid R. There are 8 seats rated as Solid D or Very Likely D that are flips from the Republican Party, in large part due to redistricting. On the other hand, there is 1 district rated as Solid R that is a flip from the Democratic Party, due to redistricting.
Altogether, Democrats would make a net gain of 32 seats from the Republicans in this prediction.
In my view, a realistic best-case scenario for the Democratic Party is 265 Democrats and 151 Republicans. On the other hand, a realistic best-case scenario for the Republican Party is 230 Democrats and 205 Republicans.
Emil Ordonez, a political science major at Fordham University, is the founder and editor-in-chief of Polinsights. He has been deeply passionate about politics and history since learning every U.S. President at the age of five. He was compelled to start this blog after meeting many people who were misinformed or had become apathetic about how society worked. He hopes to provide factual knowledge and insights that will encourage people, especially the young, to get more engaged in their respective communities. In his free time, he edits for Wikipedia and makes maps for elections. He aspires to work in Congress or even the White House in the future.
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