2026 U.S. Senate Predictions

My ratings, explained:

Solid D/R – A heavily favored party is virtually guaranteed to win. The opposing party has little realistic chance of winning under normal political circumstances. 

Very Likely D/R – The favored party has an overwhelming advantage. An upset is possible but would require an unusually strong shift in the political environment. 

Likely D/R – The favored party is clearly ahead and is expected to win, barring a significant change in the race.  

Lean D/R – The favored party has a modest advantage but faces meaningful competition. The race could become competitive with relatively small shifts in voter preferences. 

Tilt D/R – The favored party has a very narrow advantage. The race is essentially a toss-up, with a slight edge toward one party. 

Tossup – Neither party has a discernible advantage. Both candidates have roughly equal chances of winning.

For the purposes of this article, I will not use any tossups.

Race Summaries:

For brevity’s sake, I will only talk about races rated as Tilt, Lean, and Likely D/R. 

Florida

Incumbent running: Ashley Moody (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+13

Rating: Likely R

Incumbent Ashley Moody was appointed to fill the remainder of Marco Rubio’s term when he resigned to become Secretary of State. She had previously been Florida’s state attorney general and had been re-elected to that office in 2022 by a landslide margin. Thus, she is the favorite to win a full Senate term against Democratic state legislator and member of the DSA Angie Nixon. However, Nixon is not going down without a fight, as she has deployed a very competent ground game and is turning out registered Democrats at a higher rate than Republicans. It should also be noted that this ground game is making the Florida gubernatorial race more competitive than it should have been.

New Hampshire

Incumbent running: OPEN (Dem incumbent)

2024 Vote: Harris+3

Rating: Likely D

Incumbent Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, and the Democrats have nominated congressman Chris Pappas in her stead. The Republicans, on the other hand, nominated former Senator John Sununu, whom Shaheen had defeated back in 2008 to win her seat for the first time. Despite initial concerns by the Democrats that it might be competitive due to the Sununu family’s prominence in the state, Pappas has since pulled away in the polls. Sununu also has to contend with the fact that New Hampshire in recent years has typically tended to elect Democrats at the federal level and Republicans at the state level, and thus he is the underdog to Pappas.

South Carolina

Incumbent running: Darline Graham (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+18

Rating: Tilt R

Following the death of her brother Senator Lindsey Graham in July, Darline Graham was appointed to fill his seat. Despite having no political experience whatsoever, she was endorsed by President Trump and won the special Republican primary to compete in the general election. However, concerns that she may not be suited for the job (such as a debate answer where she said she was not too knowledgeable about national security) and reluctance by her primary opponent, Congressman Ralph Norman, to support her fully, have given Democratic nominee Annie Andrews an opening. The polling in this race has significantly tightened in recent weeks, and Black turnout in the state has also been at unusual highs. Graham still has the edge due to the state’s partisan lean and the expected Republican governor’s coattails, but she can easily lose this edge come Tuesday.

Ohio

Incumbent running: Jon Husted (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+11

Rating: Lean D (flip)

Incumbent Jon Husted was previously Ohio’s lieutenant governor before being appointed to fill the seat of J.D. Vance when he resigned to become Vice President. To face off against him, Democrats perhaps recruited the most viable candidate they could have ever put up: former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in the 2024 general election and now seeks a return to the chamber. While Husted was initially favored, Brown has since taken the lead in polling after running a populist campaign railing against the cost-of-living crisis and data centers. The president would like to claim that complimenting Jon Husted’s ass and body has jumped his numbers in the polls, but Brown is clearly favored in this race.

Kansas

Incumbent running: Roger Marshall (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+16

Rating: Tilt D (flip)

Incumbent Roger Marshall was caught sleeping at the wheel with a strong moderate Democratic challenger, pastor Adam Hamilton, who has focused his campaign on easing agricultural and economic pain and has attacked Marshall’s previous medical practice for suing hundreds of low-income patients for medical debts. Marshall has also been attacked for spending most of his time in Florida, and suffers from a lower approval rating in the state than the President of the United States and the state’s governor. As such, Hamilton has taken the lead in the polls. Marshall clearly did not see himself in a competitive race, as he has struggled to respond to Hamilton. The other thing going for Hamilton is that Kansas has generally trended leftward in recent years due to the growth of the Kansas City metropolitan area and its suburbs, which helped Democratic governor Laura Kelly win two terms in 2018 and 2022. If Hamilton is elected, he will be the first Democratic senator elected since 1932.

Louisiana

Rating: Likely R

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

Incumbent Bill Cassidy had initially ran for re-election but was ousted in the primary by congresswoman Julia Letlow. While this would normally be a safe race for the Republican, higher-than-normal Democratic turnout could make this a tighter race, giving Democratic nominee Jamie Davis a non-insignificant chance of winning. To be clear, though, Letlow is still in the driver’s seat.

Maine

Incumbent running: Susan Collins (R)

2024 Vote: Harris+7

Rating: Lean D (flip)

Incumbent Susan Collins defied political gravity when she won re-election by a surprisingly large margin in 2020 despite Joe Biden winning the state. However, it seems she is at a disadvantage at this point. After domestic abuse and sexual assault allegations forced previous Democratic nominee Graham Platner to drop out of the race, Democrats nominated former Maine Senate President and former logger Troy Jackson. Jackson has sought to tie Collins to Trump and has attacked her as out-of-touch. Meanwhile, Collins, as chair of the Senate appropriations committee, has touted the millions of dollars she helped steer to the state and her bipartisanship. However, it seems that Collins may not be able to defy political gravity this time around. In my opinion, Collins won re-election in 2020 because of the surge of Trump voters and because her crossover support was alive back then. Now, Trump voters will probably not turn out and her crossover support has ebbed away, causing Collins to have the lowest approval ratings of her career. It is also worth noting that Collins has never ran in a year where political polarization is rife and the fundamentals are extremely favorable to the Democratic Party. Thus, Jackson is favored in the race. Collins will still have a huge amount of crossover support, but probably not enough to win.

Michigan

Incumbent running: OPEN (Dem incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+1.4

Rating: Lean D

Incumbent Gary Peters decided to retire, paving way for a contentious primary between progressive doctor Abdul El-Sayed and pro-Israel congresswoman Haley Stevens that saw El-Sayed narrowly prevail. El-Sayed faces off against Republican former congressman Mike Rogers, who came up short in the 2024 Senate race against Democrat Elissa Slotkin. Rogers and top Republican surrogates have used Islamophobia against El-Sayed, accusing him of being associated with the Muslim Brotherhood and of being anti-semitic. There has also been some drama recently with former congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsing Rogers due to disagreements over Israel despite having endorsed El-Sayed following the conclusion of the primary. Despite these Islamophobic attacks and the Stevens endorsement, El-Sayed is still favored to win, as he will benefit from the national environment being unfavorable for the GOP and from fellow Democrat Jocelyn Benson’s expected coattails in the gubernatorial election.

Minnesota

Incumbent running: OPEN (Dem incumbent)

2024 Vote: Harris+4

Rating: Likely D

Incumbent Tina Smith decided to retire, and in her stead the Democrats nominated progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. Flanagan faces off against Republican former journalist Michele Tafoya. Tafoya has sought to tie Flanagan to the state’s recent fraud scandals during her term as lieutenant governor and has portrayed herself as a pro-choice, moderate Republican. However, Flanagan has fired back by tying Tafoya to unpopular President Trump and the ICE raids that killed two American citizens in Minneapolis in January. As a result, Flanagan has pulled ahead in polls, leaving Tafoya in the dust.

Mississippi

Incumbent running: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+23

Rating: Likely R

Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is facing off against Democratic district attorney Scott Colom, whose nomination for a judgeship she had blocked a few years under the Biden administration. Colom seems to be competitive in the polls and has portrayed Hyde-Smith as out-of-touch, and Hyde-Smith has a history of underperforming in recent elections. However, it is a very high bar for Colom to clear, as in order to win he would need very high Black turnout and a non-insignificant portion of Whites to cross over. Mississippi’s electorate is notoriously quite inelastic, as White people in that state tend to cast the vast majority of their votes to the Republicans. Thus, Colom is the underdog in this race, but there will potentially be quite a close race on Tuesday.

Texas

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+14

Rating: Tilt D (flip)

Incumbent John Cornyn had initially ran for another term but was ousted in the Republican primary by Trump-endorsed state attorney general Ken Paxton. Paxton has a number of liabilities, including the fact that he had been indicted for securities fraud, impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas state house, owning an absurdly high amount of homes for a public official, and other corruption allegations. These have given Democratic state legislator James Talarico an opening, as he has ran his campaign railing against billionaires and Ken Paxton’s corruption, as well as leaning into his Christian faith. Polls have shown that Talarico has the highest advantage of any Democrat since the 1988 Senate election, which was the last time Democrats had won a Senate seat in Texas. Very few polls have shown Paxton in the lead. Additionally, Talarico benefits from a number of crossover Republicans who backed Cornyn in the primary who have chosen not to vote or have endorsed him, the fact that more people turned out in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary for the first time since 2003, and a surge in Black and Hispanic turnout, with polls indicating Talarico will win both groups by huge margins. There is also evidence that turnout from rural and Republican counties has been dampened in recent days, possibility due to backlash to data centers. Thus, Talarico is favored to flip the seat into the Democratic column, and when he does so he will fulfill the Democrats’ coveted dream of a blue Texas that has evaded them for decades.

Iowa

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+13

Rating: Tilt D (flip)

Incumbent Joni Ernst decided to retire this year, and the Republicans have nominated congresswoman Ashley Hinson in her stead. The Democrats, on the other hand, have nominated Democratic state legislator and wheelchair basketball player Josh Turek, who has focused his campaign on railing against the cost of Trump’s tariffs, the state’s water quality, and high cancer rates. Hinson is a tough opponent, has a record of overperforming in congressional elections, and has sought to appear moderate. The polls in this race have tightened very considerably in recent weeks. However, I would argue that Turek is very narrowly favored due to Trump’s crumbling approval in the state and the possibility he will benefit from the coattails of gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, who is expected to win by a healthy margin.

Nebraska

Incumbent running: Pete Ricketts (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+20

Rating: Lean R

Incumbent Pete Ricketts is running for re-election to a full term, and his opponent is independent candidate Dan Osborn, who overperformed against Ricketts’s fellow Senator Deb Fischer in the 2024 elections in a surprisingly competitive race. Osborn has ran a populist campaign and has attacked Ricketts for being too close to corporations. Meanwhile, Ricketts and top Republican allies have attacked Osborn as being too extreme for the state. However, Osborn may just come up short in this one, as Ricketts is a more formidable opponent than Fischer in 2024 and benefits from the state’s partisan lean.

Montana

Incumbent running: OPEN (GOP incumbent)

2024 Vote: Trump+20

Rating: Likely R

Montana is a mess. Incumbent senator Steve Daines dropped out of the race mere minutes before the candidacy filing deadline, and prosecutor Kurt Alme, who has zero campaign experience and endorsed by Daines, threw his hat in the ring instead. This quite undemocratic move caused the Montana Republican Party not to endorse Alme in the election. However, while Alme is shown to be underperforming in the polls, luckily for him the anti-Republican vote is split between independent candidate Seth Bodnar, who has the backing of several prominent state Democrats, and Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, who refused calls to drop out even as polls show that Bodnar would fare better against Alme than she would. Thus, Alme is the favorite to handily win this race. However, an upset by Bodnar can not be ruled out.

Alaska

Incumbent running: Dan Sullivan (R)

2024 Vote: Trump+13

Rating: Tilt D (flip)

Incumbent Dan Sullivan is in the toughest re-election fight of his Senate career against former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola, who surprised just about everyone when she won a special election to represent the state in 2022 after nearly 50 years of Republican control. She lost re-election in 2024 narrowly but is running a strong campaign focusing on affordability against Sullivan, who has a low approval rating in the state. In recent weeks, however, the race has been thrown into controversy after it was revealed by the New York Times that Peltola aides had allegedly recruited a man with the same name as Dan Sullivan to show up on the ballot in order to confuse voters. The Trump administration has attempted to block Alaska from certifying the results of the election if Peltola wins, but such efforts have been torpedoed in court. Nonetheless, this is a non-controversy as both political parties have done this tactic for years and Senator Sullivan has the word “incumbent” next to his name on the ballot. Peltola remains the favorite to win, as she has maintained a steady lead in polling and will benefit from Sullivan and Trump’s poor approval ratings in this ruby red state.

Here is a list of non-competitive Senate elections this year:

Safe R	Very Likely R	Very Likely D	Safe D
Alabama (OPEN) Kentucky (OPEN) Oklahoma (OPEN) Tennessee (Hagerty) West Virginia (Capito) Wyoming (OPEN)	Arkansas (Cotton) Idaho (Risch) South Dakota (Rounds)	Georgia (Ossoff) North Carolina (OPEN; flip)	Colorado (Hickenlooper) Delaware (Coons) Illinois (OPEN) Massachusetts (Markey) New Jersey (Booker) New Mexico (Lujan) Oregon (Merkley) Rhode Island (Reed) Virginia (Warner)